Parole rates rising, especially for aggravated sex offenders

An attorney forwarded me data related to month-by-month Texas parole rates for various classes of offenders showing a slight nut noticeable overall increase in parole rates - especially for aggravated sex offenders, surprisingly - since the beginning of the fiscal year.


By contrast, here are the parole approval rates by offense type for FY 2010 from the parole board's annual report (pdf, p. 20):

• Violent Aggravated Non-Sexual: 26.22%
• Violent Aggravated Sexual: 39.82%
• Violent Non-Aggravated Non-Sexual: 22.61%
• Non-Aggravated Sexual: 28.40%
• Non-Violent: 33.89%
• Total: 31.01%

Grits finds these data remarkable, particularly the relatively high, recent parole approval rates for aggravated sex offenders. Of course, these data must be taken with a grain of salt. They could represent short term fluctuations resulting from particular cases that happened to come before the board recently. Also, notes the attorney who forwards the information, quite a few sex offenders approved for parole must first undergo treatment, take classes, etc., so not all those may be released any time soon. It's even possible the parole board chose to approve certain sex offenders who are nearing the end of their sentence so they'll be released while still under supervision instead of simply being handed $100 and a bus ticket with no reentry support.

Without more detailed data it's impossible to say what's behind the numbers or whether the spike may continue. It'll take many more months of data before one could say if recent, higher parole rates, including for agg sex offenders, are an outlier or represent a bona fide trend. But it does seem as though overall parole rates are inching upward, including even for serious offenders with long prison terms. This is good short-term economic news for the agency and the state and likely will pose little overall safety risk. If it continues, lessened prison population pressure will make it much less difficult next year for the Legislature to consider closure of more older, high-cost units as a cost-saving measure.

RELATED: Since Grits mentioned above data on sex offenders deemed ready for parole, it's worth mentioning that the Houston Chronicle has a story ("Freed Texas sex offendes aren't really free," April 16) about the state's civil commitment program, which supervises sex offenders deemed unfit for unfettered release even though they've fully served their sentence. Civil commitment is an extra punishment attached after criminal sanctions end and some critics complain it amounts to double jeopardy.  The Chronicle discussion arises in the wake of a recent escape by a high-risk sex offender from a halfway house run by the Geo Group, a private prison vendor. (Texas Prison Bidness notes that this was the 5th escape from that facility in 18 months.) Roughly 244 offenders are currently monitored in Texas' civil commitment program.